A few days ago, BNP`s participation in eleventh parliamentary election was uncertain. Many thought that BNP might not come to the polls like the last time, but BNP takes dramatic decision about the participation marking the end of all speculation. Although there is still doubt in political arena over BNP`s participation at the end. But according to multiple political analysts, BNP will be in the field of elections till the end. Talking to some BNP leaders about this it has been learned that if BNP remains in the election, they will be able to achieve a dramatic result like the Sylhet City Corporation. BNP treated this election as a fight for their existence. Even if they do not win in the election, they will remain in a respectable position which will bring positive results for them.
Meanwhile, many senior leaders of BNP said that if this election stays neutral, then BNP-led coalition that includes Jatiya Oikya Front and the 20-party alliance will bring a dramatic result. BNP`s secretary-general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said in today`s (Thursday) Oikya Front meeting that if the election is even 20 percent neutral, then Jatiya Oikya Front would mark the victory. Immediately after that, he urged Oikya Front to take the symbol of BNP.
However, BNP has to obey five things if they want to win. And these are:
1. In the last 10 years, BNP has not played an important role as a political party or even as an opposition party. All their demands were person-centered, more specifically, Zia family-centered. There political issues were Begum Zia`s release, Tarique Zia`s release; cases against Begum Zia etc. They did not become vocal on any public related issues. However, due to some Awami leaders, voters got some negative ideas about some activities of the party. Many political analysts believe that BNP is likely to win in the election due to those negative connotations. In 2001, BNP was a failed opposition party but the party came to the power that time as the anti-Awami force voted for them. Now Awami League has been in power for 10 years. It is certain that pleasing everyone staying in power is impossible. Many get dissatisfied with the ruling party, and many of them go away after being deprived. As a result, psychological conflict has been created among AL supporters. If BNP can assemble the anti-Awami votes along with this party votes, the party can achieve an unimaginable result in this election.
2. There are still grouping, factional conflicts and internal conflicts prevailing in AL. Besides, 14 candidates of Awami League have submitted nomination forms in a single constituency. AL has single candidate only in 7 constituencies and those are Gopalganj-3, Gopalganj-2, Barisal-1, Bagerhat-2, Khulna-2, Moulvibazar-1, Noakhali-5. Meanwhile, Awami League leaders are quite skeptical about whether the nomination deprived leaders will work for the nominated candidates as the remaining constituencies have several nomination aspirants. Although Awami League President Sheikh Hasina gave special emphasis on the issue of internal conflicts in a speech that was given to the candidates yesterday (Wednesday). She also announced to expel those from the party who would break party discipline. Even after the statement of the party`s president, many people are skeptical whether everyone will obey the instruction or not. Therefore, if Awami League fails to stay united, then defeat in several constituencies will be inevitable and BNP will benefit in this case.
3. Bangladeshi people are very emotional. After the fall of dictator Ershad in `90, he had been detained. In Rangpur, where Ershad was the most unpopular, he won 5 seats in that region. Supporting weak and the defeated is a traditional nature of Bangladeshi people. Begum Zia is now imprisoned for her misdeeds. Now it is a matter of fact that how BNP uses this issue to take sympathy from the common people. If they can create emotion in the public using this issue, then BNP is expected to achieve a positive result in this election.
4. Not only AL, BNP is also suffering from internal conflicts. There are conflicts and disagreements between BNP`s nomination candidates in several constituencies. Recently, many of the expelled leaders were reinstated in the party. In the last one month, 61 people have been brought back to the party. Among them, Abu Hena, Shahidul Haque Jamal, Golam Mohammad Siraj, Mafikul Hasan Tripti, Zahir Uddin Swapan are prominent. All of them are now the candidates for the election. Several leaders raised objection in this regard. BNP central leader Gayeshwar Chandra Roy said that those who have opposed BNP so far, even conspired to remove Begum Zia from the party, if the nomination is given to them, then there will be adverse reactions among the tested and sacrificing leaders. Now BNP`s success is depending on how the party solves the crisis. If the tested leaders tolerate the come back of the reformists silently, then it will be possible to expect a positive result in the election.
5. BNP has got united with some person-oriented parties. The main purpose of this unity is to get rid of bad images. Because the party`s acting chairman Tarique Zia has a bad reputation. Apart from this, BNP has been accused of corruption, terrorism, extortion and various irregularities during their term in 2002-2006. Bangladesh was a crowned champion in corruption for three consecutive times. So, as a shield to hide their previous misdeeds, BNP is using Dr Kamal Hossain, ASM Abdur RAb and Mahmudur Rahman Manna. Now the point to see is how much they will work for BNP and how much they can reach to the common people for BNP.
If BNP can get positive results in these 5 cases, they can show a surprise like the election of `91.